Yesterday Dr: Franklin, Mr: Jay, & myself met to prepare the Definitive Treaty, and made so much progress in it, that tomorrow we shall be ready to communicate to Mr: Hartley the result: But I have small hopes of obtaining any thing more by the Definitive Treaty.—2

The Duke of Manchester & the Comte d’Aranda have arranged every thing between England & Spain, and are ready to finish for their two Courts.3 France, I presume, waits only for Holland, or perhaps for some other negotiation with the Imperial Courts. If all the other parties were now to declare themselves ready, we should be puzzled. In such a Case, however, I am determined, (and I believe, but don’t know, that my Colleagues would join me) to declare 62myself ready to sign the Provisional Treaty, totidem verbis,4 for a Definitive one. From all I can learn, I am persuaded we shall gain nothing by any further negotiation: If we obtain any thing, by way of addition or explanation, we shall be obliged to give for it more than it is worth. If the British Minister refuses to agree to such Changes as we may think reasonable, & refuses to sign the Provisional Articles as Definitive ones, I take it for granted France will not sign till we do. If they should we are still safe, for the Provisional Articles are to constitute the Treaty, as soon as France has made Peace— And I should rather leave it on that footing than make any material Alteration.—

I have put these several Cases, because I should be surprized at nothing from the present British Ministry. If they have any plan at all, it is a much less generous one, towards America, than that of their immediate Predecessors. If Shelburne, Townshend, Pitt &c: had continued, we should have had every thing settled, long ago, to our entire satisfaction; and to infinite advantage to Great-Britain & America, in such a manner as would have restored good humor & affection, as far as, in the nature of things, they can now be restored. After the great point of the acknowledgement of our Independence was got over, by issuing Mr: Oswald’s last Commission,5 the Shelburne Administration conducted towards us like men of Sense & Honour. The present Administration have neither discovered understanding or sincerity— The present Administration is unpopular, and it is in itself so heterogeneous a Composition that it seems impossible it should last long. Their present design seems to be, not to commit themselves by agreeing to any thing. As soon as any thing is done, somebody will clamor: While nothing is done, it is not known what to clamor about.

If there should be a change in favor of the Ministry that made the Peace, and a dissolution of this profligate League, which they call the Coalition, it would be much for the good of all who speak the English language. If Fame says true, the Coalition was formed at Gambling Tables, & is conducted, as it was formed, upon no other than gambling principles.— Such is the state of a nation which stands tottering on the brink of a precipice with a debt of Two hundred & fifty six millions Sterling on its Shoulders. The interest of which, added to the Peace establishment only, exceeds, by above a million annually, all their Revenues, enormously & intolerably as they are already taxed.—

The only chance they have for Salvation, is in a reform, & in recovering the affection of America. The last Ministry were sensible of this, & acted accordingly: The present Ministry are so far from being sensible of it, or careing abt: it, that they seem to me to be throwing the last dice for the destruction of their Country—

I have the honor to be, Sir, / Your humle: Servt:

A few Vessells have arrived in England from various Parts of America, and have probably made the Ministry, Merchants and Manufacturers less anxious about a present Arrangement of Commerce. Whether these Vessells have rashly hazarded these Voyages against the Laws of their Country, or whether they have Permission from Congress or their States We are not informed.

It would have been better no doubt to have had an Agreement made before the Trade was opened: but the Eagerness of both Sides may not easily be restrained. Whether it is practicable for Congress to Stop the Trade I know not: or whether it would be expedient if practicable, I doubt.

The Ballance of Parties in England is so nicely poised, that the Smallest Weight shifts the Scales. In Truth, nothing can be done without changing the Ministry, for whatever is done raises a Cry Sufficient to shake those who do it.— In this Situation it is a Question whether it is best for Us to keep Things in suspence, or bring 64them to a decision. if Congress were to prohibit all Trade with England untill a Treaty of Commerce was made or Some temporary Convention at least, it might bring on a decision by exciting a Cry against the Ministry for not making a Convention.— But the Moment a Convention is made a Cry will be raised against them for making it.— The present Ministry, to judge by their motions hitherto will hazard the Clamour, for not making one rather than that for making one. They think it the least dangerous to them, especially Since they have Seen so may American Vessells arrive in England and have heard that British ships are admitted to an Entry in the Ports of America, particularly Philadelphia.

The most difficult Thing, to adjust in a Treaty of Commerce will be the Communication We shall have with the West India Islands. This is of great Importance to Us and to the Islands, and I think to Great Britain too. Yet there is a formidable Party for excluding Us at least from carrying the Produce of those Islands to Great Britain.

Much will depend upon the Minister you first send to London. An American Minister would be a formidable Being to any British Minister whatever. He would converse with all Parties, and if he is a prudent cautious Man, he would at this Moment have more Influence there than you can imagine.

We are chained here, in the only Spot in the World, where We can be of no Use. if my Colleagues were of my Mind We would all go together to London, where We could negotiate the definitive Treaty, and talk of Arrangement of Commerce to some Purpose.— However, one Minister with proper Instructions, would do better in London than four. He would have the Artifices of French Emmissaries to counteract as well as English Partisans. for you may depend upon it, the French See with Pleasure the Improbability of our coming soon and cordially together, as they Saw with manifest Regret the appearances of Cordial Reconciliation under the former Administration. These Sentiments are not unnatural, but We are under no Obligation, from mere Complaisance to Sacrifice Interests of Such deep and lasting Consequence. For it is not merely mercantile Profit and Convenience that is at Stake. future Wars, long and bloody Wars may be either avoided or intailed upon our Posterity, as We conduct wisely or otherwise the present Negotiation with Great Britain.

With great Respect and Esteem I have / the Honour to be, Sir, your most obedient / and most humble servant