Rain and fog. Day at home writing and reading. Evening at the Mansion.

Read Locke, p. 185–240. Upon the general character of proof, certainty, probability &ca. and the degrees of assent. Lucretius 533–780. I think this sixth book appears put in to fill up.

I devoted much time to writing an essay upon the present state of political affairs. Whether it will come to any thing remains pretty doubtful. But I was satisfied with my work after I had finished it, which rarely happens to me. The returns of elections appear very much against the Whigs, more so than I think they in reality are. The people appear to have turned a somerset to the Administration moved by the popular impulses that party know so well how to use. Yet the opposition is more concentrated and effective and better able to take advantage of every bad accident which must involve the Government through it’s own stupidity. The Administration now runs for luck purely.